When turned? Maybe when you least expect it.

As reported by the Wall Street Journal, Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stresses that with more and more indications of a serious recession, it will be necessary to start talking about slowing monetary tightening. Investors, who have been on the fence for half a year precisely because of the Fed’s relentless fight against inflation, could not have asked for better news, which is why stock indexes on Friday, when bank stocks were mainly and JPMorgan: +5%), profit margins rose for the entire week. Of course, it is difficult to say whether it is just a downtrend recovery or something else, but a lot will depend on the actions of the US central bank. If inflation starts to fall and big increases in interest rates (even at the November 1-2 meeting, the Fed will almost certainly raise rates by 75 basis points) are no longer necessary, the last quarter could bring good returns to the stock markets.

Tesla Stocks fall despite doubling profits
The positive mood is also thanks to some encouraging quarterly results from US companies in recent days, although they have not been without disappointments. Snap, better known as Request The photo-sharing app, Snapchat, brought in $1.13 billion in quarterly revenue, slightly below expectations (1.14). However, the share price fell 28 percent, to its lowest level since February 2019. Electric car maker Tesla generated more revenue in the third quarter than in the same period last year. Such as Profits doubled (to $3.29 billion), and revenue also hit a record ($21.45 billion in the three months to October), but it still fell short of analyst expectations. Shares hit a new low this year, 50 percent off the record (from last November). By the way, Elon Musk expects the recession to continue until the spring of 2024.

The first three months of the uptrend is very profitable
If the recession is really stubborn, we probably haven’t seen the bottom in the stock markets yet, but the stock markets will definitely start to recover soon. Such as Economie. Many guess when it will be the best time to enter, which is an undesirable task. The best strategy is to buy gradually, even if prices have regressed slightly, as the first months of an uptrend have historically been very strong. Since 1928, on Wall Street, the first month of an uptrend has produced average gains of 15-2%, and 31.6% in the first three months. And it is clear that the growth of stocks always began in very uncertain conditions, when most of them were still claiming that the market was not yet ripe for the transformation. In short, it is preferable for an uptrend to start at a moment when no one knows where to find the reasons for the growth of the stock.

Bonds look really attractive
This year, investors are also paying a lot of attention to the bond markets, where the price drop is unusually high. The required yield on US bonds (yield moves in the opposite direction Such as price) four percent along the entire curve in October, also for a short time with the three-month bond. In the 10 most-watched bonds, yield jumped all the way to 4.34 percent (price fell to $87.42), the highest level since 2008 (at the close of trading on Friday, the yield then fell to 4.21 percent). for more governor Investors, this is definitely a great opportunity, we can only dream of such an interest on bank deposits. However, it is true that the European investor accepts currency risk when buying US bonds, because it is not a given that the dollar will remain so strong.

second judicial intervention Bank of Japan
In the currency markets, USD/JPY sees the dollar overburdened for the first time since 1990 Such as 150 yen. Increasingly weak yen is fueling profits for Japanese exporters and attracting tourists to Tokyo (the industry has rebounded after the pandemic), but too much is too much, which is why the Bank of Japan intervened again on Friday, this month. In favor of the defense of the yen has already allocated 2.8 trillion yen (at that time this meant Around 20 billion), but it temporarily calmed feelings, and a new one followed on Friday judicial interventionAfter that, the yen rose to 147 yen to the dollar. Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki on Thursday volatile He described the movements in the foreign exchange markets as unsustainable and warned that the authorities would provide the appropriate response.

Everyone raises interest rates except for the Japanese
Too low value coins It brings rising inflation to the Land of the Rising Sun, where Japan is highly dependent on energy and food imports. After a painful period of deflation, Japan is aiming for « good » inflation, that is, inflation fueled by rising consumer demand, rather than inflation driven by dollar strength and disruption to supply chains. Core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) was only 1.8% in September in Japan, much lower Such as in the United States (6.6%). So the central bank (while interest rates around the world are rising) can continue to pursue a stimulus monetary policy, and this is precisely the main reason for the decline in the yen.